Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 26.750489 29.644481 32.946386 37.046507 42.080815 48.172972 56.289787
2025-02-23 22.424630 26.031288 30.504141 36.641902 45.175243 57.217532 76.858027
2025-03-02 19.792726 23.755334 28.983330 36.749994 48.772788 68.453501 108.801849
2025-03-09 17.799061 21.883376 27.524506 36.440468 51.542499 79.914593 154.794918
2025-03-16 16.264806 20.367853 26.240255 35.999480 53.860587 92.084851 226.915347
2025-03-23 15.066332 19.148869 25.164901 35.597467 56.057918 105.794550 356.674130
2025-03-30 14.124597 18.181473 24.313032 35.358271 58.470910 122.504694 654.633335
2025-04-06 13.207258 17.152903 23.224422 34.467955 59.177325 135.408631 1305.662957
2025-04-13 12.906888 17.018819 23.544786 36.235298 66.783546 184.756299 NaN
2025-04-20 12.283373 16.325012 22.844694 35.862991 68.868049 216.352785 NaN
2025-04-27 11.828717 15.858273 22.477290 36.097231 72.809976 272.119623 NaN
2025-05-04 11.445305 15.473585 22.208095 36.485805 77.500129 359.366595 NaN
2025-05-11 11.047505 15.044005 21.828246 36.596675 81.590291 482.813870 NaN
2025-05-18 10.600743 14.505516 21.202580 36.047293 83.198514 606.999779 NaN
2025-05-25 10.265487 14.131639 20.848583 36.084172 87.208916 897.995858 NaN
2025-06-01 9.916068 13.712828 20.374147 35.753968 89.673989 1326.501301 NaN
2025-06-08 9.582775 13.302972 19.884515 35.313654 91.545793 2086.754734 NaN
2025-06-15 9.280049 12.929629 19.437447 34.918609 93.539757 3984.511895 NaN
2025-06-22 9.016316 12.610089 19.071857 34.684459 96.328756 15535.263853 NaN
2025-06-29 8.707136 12.197824 18.497002 33.821092 95.472744 79709.191715 NaN
2025-07-06 8.668169 12.253329 18.852890 35.531703 110.409445 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.438388 11.961236 18.485606 35.171168 112.820317 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.274306 11.778389 18.329439 35.397759 119.594417 NaN NaN